The Hard Look

A Growth Opportunity

While the rich nations of the earth spin out of control over climate change, the poor nations are about to erupt, and in Haiti food riots have already begun.  Fact is, we have exported everything but agricultural self-sufficiency.  On top of that, we are shifting resources from food production into fuels production.  A fifth of the nation’s corn crop is now used to brew ethanol for motor fuel, and as farmers have planted more corn, they have cut acreage of other crops, particularly soybeans. That, in turn, has contributed to a global shortfall of cooking oil, as well as corn meal.

You can expect to see an expansion in agriculture and an increase in farm subsidies.  In some perverse way, this may make sense because it is far less expensive to subsidise farmers to ensure enough food for the world than it is to put down regional food riots and wars.  Oh - and there is the moral element.  I'm not prepared to take responsibility for starving the poorest people on earth so that I can feel good about my 85% ethanol fueled car. 

I note in passing, by the way, that many environmental activists quietly rejoice over the potential of millions (billions?) of starving people.  They think we need population control and food riots prove their point at the same time that it reduces population.  These activists are very sick people and they constitute the leadership of most of the national environmental movement.  But we've known about that for years, so I don't suppose any of us should be particularly surprised about that.

In any case, here are a couple of news reports that show the mainstream media is beginning to get the picture.  NYT and the Telegraph.

Climate Change Emergency Plans

The sad fact is -- we have already passed the point of no return on global warming, if . . .

The "IF" is the point.  If the only way we intend to address the warming associated with climate change is to reduce carbon emissions, we are too late to prevent catastrophic ocean rise and massive shifts in local climates.  Since carbon emissions reduction seems to be all anyone is willing to discuss, then the rationalists among us suggest doing one additional thing - develop an emergency plan to cool the planet once we fail to stop it from reaching critical levels.  Here's a commentary on this issue.  "Emergency Preparedness for Climate Change."  It's a quick read.

Wise County Coal

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality is now considering granting a Clean Air Act pre-construction permit to Dominion Power for a new coal-fired powerplant in Wise County.  This plant will provide needed jobs to a job-strapped part of our state.  It will provide the Commonwealth needed electrical generation capacity - most of which is needed by folks in Northern Virginia.  It will be the cleanest coal-fired plant in the state and its priority pollutants will have no adverse effect on northern Virginia.  Indeed, the company modeled pollution effects to within 35 miles of Fairfax County, showing no adverse effect.  So, what's the problem?

The problem is coal.  Better said, it is that the plant will produce CO2 emissions.  That's what happens when one combusts coal, natural gas, trash (yes we burn that for energy too).  So what's the problem with CO2?  Well, it is a greenhouse gas and the general consensus is that the world needs to cut back on CO2 emissions.  Indeed, the nation's foremost global warming scientist, Jim Hansen, claims we need to reduce our CO2 emissions to near zero, and within the next 12 years. 

Well, that isn't going to happen.  We don't have the capacity to stop using existing coal-fired power plants.  Look at what happened in Florida just this week when a single power generating plant had to be taken offline on an emergency basis.  The whole electrical grid in Florida crashed. 

So, if we don't want coal, what's left?  Well, not wind power and not solar power.  We don't have enough places to reliably generate enough wind power to equal what we have in coal power now.  In fact, we don't even have enough places to reliably generate enough wind power to equal the capacity of the proposed Wise County facility.  Our alternative is nuclear power.  It is clean (no traditional pollutants).  It doesn't emit CO2.  We have uranium deposits in the state, so coal miners can become uranium miners.  And about a third of the state's power now comes from nuclear, so we know how to run the plants safely, efficiently and reliably. 

If someone wants to make a statement about the Wise County facility, they have but one option - recommend using nuclear instead of coal.  Any other recommendation would be disingenuous on its face.  Fairfax County's Chief Executive pulled the letter that was supposed to go before the Board of Supervisors which would have cast some doubt on the wisdom of building the Wise County plant.  He probably did not do it on the basis that controlling CO2 is a responsibility the courts have now stated is pre-empted by federal law, so that it isn't a local or even a state duty.  He probably did not pull the letter because it failed to recommend nuclear as a replacement for coal (it didn't).  He probably pulled it because it make Fairfax County look like they didn't care about people who need jobs in Wise County, and because the position is a political non-starter in Richmond.

So, it looks like the COG is going to be given the opportunity to say they don't like the proposed plant.  I will bet you dollars to donuts they won't mention nuclear either.  But the COG doesn't really care about the politics in Richmond or the people who need jobs in Wise County.  They don't even care about Northern Virginia's need for reliable electricity.  Afterall, the District gets its electricity from Alexandria and from Maryland, and Maryland doesn't need Dominion Power at all. 

The question is whether Fairfax County's representatives to the COG on this issue will go along with the crowd or take a principled stand on the issue.  Time will tell.