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February 2008

February 28, 2008

Wise County Coal

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality is now considering granting a Clean Air Act pre-construction permit to Dominion Power for a new coal-fired powerplant in Wise County.  This plant will provide needed jobs to a job-strapped part of our state.  It will provide the Commonwealth needed electrical generation capacity - most of which is needed by folks in Northern Virginia.  It will be the cleanest coal-fired plant in the state and its priority pollutants will have no adverse effect on northern Virginia.  Indeed, the company modeled pollution effects to within 35 miles of Fairfax County, showing no adverse effect.  So, what's the problem?

The problem is coal.  Better said, it is that the plant will produce CO2 emissions.  That's what happens when one combusts coal, natural gas, trash (yes we burn that for energy too).  So what's the problem with CO2?  Well, it is a greenhouse gas and the general consensus is that the world needs to cut back on CO2 emissions.  Indeed, the nation's foremost global warming scientist, Jim Hansen, claims we need to reduce our CO2 emissions to near zero, and within the next 12 years. 

Well, that isn't going to happen.  We don't have the capacity to stop using existing coal-fired power plants.  Look at what happened in Florida just this week when a single power generating plant had to be taken offline on an emergency basis.  The whole electrical grid in Florida crashed. 

So, if we don't want coal, what's left?  Well, not wind power and not solar power.  We don't have enough places to reliably generate enough wind power to equal what we have in coal power now.  In fact, we don't even have enough places to reliably generate enough wind power to equal the capacity of the proposed Wise County facility.  Our alternative is nuclear power.  It is clean (no traditional pollutants).  It doesn't emit CO2.  We have uranium deposits in the state, so coal miners can become uranium miners.  And about a third of the state's power now comes from nuclear, so we know how to run the plants safely, efficiently and reliably. 

If someone wants to make a statement about the Wise County facility, they have but one option - recommend using nuclear instead of coal.  Any other recommendation would be disingenuous on its face.  Fairfax County's Chief Executive pulled the letter that was supposed to go before the Board of Supervisors which would have cast some doubt on the wisdom of building the Wise County plant.  He probably did not do it on the basis that controlling CO2 is a responsibility the courts have now stated is pre-empted by federal law, so that it isn't a local or even a state duty.  He probably did not pull the letter because it failed to recommend nuclear as a replacement for coal (it didn't).  He probably pulled it because it make Fairfax County look like they didn't care about people who need jobs in Wise County, and because the position is a political non-starter in Richmond.

So, it looks like the COG is going to be given the opportunity to say they don't like the proposed plant.  I will bet you dollars to donuts they won't mention nuclear either.  But the COG doesn't really care about the politics in Richmond or the people who need jobs in Wise County.  They don't even care about Northern Virginia's need for reliable electricity.  Afterall, the District gets its electricity from Alexandria and from Maryland, and Maryland doesn't need Dominion Power at all. 

The question is whether Fairfax County's representatives to the COG on this issue will go along with the crowd or take a principled stand on the issue.  Time will tell.

February 21, 2008

Costs of solar photovoltaic panels substantially eclipse benefits

Costs of solar photovoltaic panels substantially eclipse benefits, says study by UC Energy Institute director

Berkeley — Despite increasing popular support for solar photovoltaic panels in the United States, their costs far outweigh the benefits, according to a new analysis by Severin Borenstein, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley’s Haas School of Business and director of the UC Energy Institute. “Solar photovoltaic (PV) is a very exciting technology, but the current technology is not economic,” said Borenstein. “We are throwing money away by installing the current solar PV technology, which is a loser.”

In his January working paper, “The Market Value and Cost of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Product,” Borenstein also found that, even after considering that the panels reduce greenhouse gases, their costs still far outweigh their social benefits.

Borenstein’s paper is online (pdf alert).

The bottom line, Borenstein argues in his paper, is that solar PV panels are not ready for widespread installation…. He favors more state and federal funding for research and development. “We need a major scientific breakthrough, and we won’t get it by putting panels up on houses,” he said….

His analysis deconstructs the argument that solar panels produce power at the location of the end-user and therefore can reduce the costs of transmission and distribution infrastructure investments. Examining 26,522 solar PV systems in California, Borenstein found they are not concentrated in locations where they would reduce transmission congestion and reduce the
need for investment in transmission infrastructure.

“Solar PV is not clustered in the most valuable locations,” his paper concludes.

Borenstein took his analysis a step further by calculating the discounted net present value (a financial tool to calculate the value of a dollar in the future compared to its value now) of power produced by a 10 kilowatt solar photovoltaic system and then compared that to the cost of installing and operating such a system over its lifetime. He found the cost for an installation ranges from nearly $86,000 to $91,000, while the value of the power produced ranges from $19,000 to $51,000….

Given that a coal-fired electricity generation plant produces about 1 ton of carbon dioxide per megawatt hour, Borenstein estimated that the price of greenhouse gas reductions would have to range from about $150 to $500 per ton of greenhouse gases to make the current solar PV technology a worthwhile investment when greenhouse gas reductions are considered.

But Borenstein noted that policymakers are considering a far lower price - $20 per ton of greenhouse gases - as the maximum that industry could be charged in proposed tradable emissions permit programs.

February 10, 2008

Thank Gerry for the Dulles Debacle

Amy Gardner, not my favorite Post reporter, writes an interesting piece today in the Post, identifying the targets Connolly's will blame for the demise of rail service through Tysons Corner to Dulles.  The one name she never mentions is Connolly's, and thats remarkable since he is the one person who could have made this project happen.

Gerry is a pretty smart guy - really.  Underneath his self-serving smirks and nasty disposition, he has the capacity to think through problems and come up with good answers.  But, he is a control freak, and sitting on the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority, he could have insisted on competitive bidding for the project.  He could have insisted that a competent transportation organization manage the bid and project.  He could have brokered a deal with the businesses in Tysons who overloaded the proposals with gold-plated stations and too many of them.  He could have insisted on up-front planning to ensure the road maintenance and rail construction was coordinated.  And, he could have listened when he was told that highway lanes (and there are several cost-effective alternatives) could free Tysons from the daily girdlock they face.

So, who is to blame for the Dulles debacle?  Well, it isn't one person, but among the villains is Gerry Connolly.